The coming weeks will be bearers of some eagerly awaited numbers for the US economy as we reach the year’s end and start looking towards what 2013 will bring.
Whether or not an agreement is reached on Capitol Hill and more importantly when, obviously still is a mayor issue. Fiscal policy insecurities have or will have their repercussion on some of the numbers. Will the US economy receive something similar to a presidential turkey pardon?
Economic Growth Indicators
Most markets have shown some signal of fatigue as they closed lower going into the Thanksgiving weekend. Housing numbers, as indicated by the Home builder survey and Single Family Starts were the one exception to the negative trend. Reaching their highest levels in years they are looking to continued growth with the current new home sales’ largest one month increase in a decade.
This truly is ‘the most wonderful time of the year’ as more than half of the annual market returns, historically, have come from the Nov-Dec period. That is why indicators of consumers’ confidence are important things to watch out for going into the holiday season. The November Conference Bd numbers are expected to be slightly up from October in line with the improvement we have seen in most sentiment indicators recently.
As far as Jobless Claims are concerned and if Katrina is any measure to go by, according to analysts it could take up to a total of 10 weeks to see the levels go back down to pre-hurricane Sandy levels.
In stocks AAPL’s (Apple) 25% correction from its highs has been causing some pain. Despite a 13% increase in Thanksgiving sales for retailers, in stocks (according to some analysts) some additional selling might take place, reaching a low by the end of November. However seasonally and historically a year end rally should be expected, especially if the fiscal cliff issue is put to rest and quickly.
For most commodities to grab the attention of investors as a ‘buy’ there needs to be some increase in demand. That in turn would depend on how fast the (up to now very gradual) recovery of US economy can pick up speed in the coming weeks and months.
One thought. The Fiscal cliff. Little progress has been made and the clock is ticking. 4 more weeks to go until Christmas break and 36 days left to reach the cliff.
Things to look out for
Week ending November 30th
Tuesday: The Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence Index to be announced.
Wednesday: New Homes Sales numbers. Also keep an eye out for the Fed’s Beige Book a t 2.00 PM.
Thursdays: 2nd 3Q 2012 GDP report and Jobless Claims to be released.
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays for October.
Week ending December 7th
Monday: The Fed, investors and bond market will be on the lookout for the ISM Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales numbers
Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, ADP Employment, Productivity and Costs, Factory Orders numbers are expected
Thursday: Be on the lookout for the Jobless Claims, to be announced at 8.30 ET followed by
Friday: Employment Situation and Consumer Sentiment